Phase 9 prices Analysis based on Brand, Substitutes, Shift in Equilibr,

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Dear Respected Friends

Everybody is speculating on the prices of phase 9 after ballot. I want to draw your attention on the following variables and their roles in price mechanisms.

DHA Brand: DHA is an established brand with very high brand equity(if you don't get in DHA , you won't invest anywhere). The role of brand equity is to protect the consumers trust and it act as a safety shield during unfavorable circumstances. The strong Brand Equity of DHA will act as a shield and protect "Prism" from refraction of ditched prices. Even if it gets affected in a short run it will gain heavily in a long run. The brand has its gloss and command its prices and not positively correlates with the inferior goods and services offered in markets. The prices will adjust due to brand image and to match its equity soon.

Substitutes: There are many substitutes in the market such as DHA phase 7, IVY green , etc within the same brand and one will act as a "killer" which in my opinion will be phase 7 and it will boost soon by killing either IVy or prism. The weak link is Ivy green.

Another trend is that people are more inclined to do an investment on Raiwind road schemes where plots are on ground and people will shift their investments there to gain in 2- 3 years timeframe. This will shift the focus of many investors and people who want to play safe. The ultimate objective will be to earn better ROI in a specified timeframe of 2-3 years. The DHA 9 will enter into an introduction phase of a lifecyle and it will take atleast 3 years to enter into growth phase and 7 years to enter into maturity phase. The introduction phase will not allow the prices to grow due to substitutes.

Selling Pressure: The selling pressure will shift the equilibrium (Quantity supplied and Quantity demanded) to downwards and prices will dip to adjust the equilibrium point. This shift may require at least 12 months to get adjustment. Anybody who keep holding their plots will see appreciation due to upward shift and those who get panic will sell below the equilibrium point and play a role to keep prices either stagnant or bring them down.

In sum, the selling pressure will bring prices down but remember Brand equity will protect it.

Market Dynamics: As a rule of thumb the prices grow eventually in a long run in real-estate and real gain happens when construction activity starts.At the moment DHA phase 9 is at initial stage and requires atleast 4 years (keep mantra of fast track development)to gain real momentum.

Regards
Ahsan Ali